Uncertainty Management in Product
The most important activity of a product team is to manage the risk of building the wrong thing while maximising the upside of building the right thing.
We are all going to build the wrong things eventually. In more uncertain environments, we will probably do so most of the time. But that’s okay. In nature, adapted species survive in their environment because they can afford to lose some individuals that might not be adapted so that the whole can survive. Similarly, we must allow some ideas to fail so that the great ones can emerge.
Once out in the world, ideas take on a life of their own. They are complex. The entire process is non-linear and chaotic. The success of ideas is sensitive to the steps and sequences of actions we take to get there. It’s not just about considering the direct ROI of an idea but also imagining the future possibilities it might unlock. How might the idea unveil itself into new opportunities or even better ideas? Choosing high-upside is not the same as choosing high-impact ones. We don’t really know the impact an idea might have. But with some creativity and foresight, we can anticipate the doors it might open.
Focus more on the effects of ideas and less on their accuracy.